Saturday, June 14, 2008
Coin Tosses and Stock Price Charts
Prior to the 1960’s, most investors believed that future securities prices could be predicted (and that great riches were to be had) if only they could discover the secret. Many investors still believe this today, despite much evidence that suggests that they would be best served by simply owning the entire market (investing in index funds) rather than trying to pick individual stocks.
The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) essentially states that techniques such as fundamental and technical analysis cannot be used to consistently earn excess profits in the long run. The EMH began with
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